Peak day prediction of 2018 winter holidays travel

This article was written about 6 months ago.
photo by tabi-o-ji.com

According to this site Shinkansen Timetable’s independent survey, the train congestion peaks during coming winter holidays (December 28, 2018 – January 6, 2019) will be December 29 for outbound trains and January 3 for inbound ones because many users search the travel plans here for these days.

We have analyzed the search volume of our travel planner. As a result of the counting, outbound travels on December 29, and inbound ones on January 3 have great searching volumes. The actual peaks of crowding are expected to be around these days. If the daily number of search reflects the number of passengers to go on those days, the days will be actual peaks of crowding.

These data was got through different calculation approach from Congestion Prediction in this site. So they may be out of synchronization each other.

Seat availability around the expected peak days

Checking the actual seat availability data at the night of December 12, we draw charts shown below indicate seat availability of around the peak days on Tokaido, Sanyo and Kyushu Shinkansen.

On the graphs, horizontal axes mean hours of departure from 6 to 24 and vertical the number of Nozomi, Mizuho, Hikari, Sakura and Tsubame trains. The bar of blue shows under-occupied trains, yellow near capacity and red full occupancy. So it may easy to book trains at the hours with stretching blue bar.

The seat availability changes from moment to moment. Visit the site of JR Cyber Station and get up-to-the-minute details.

Tokaido Shinkansen

outbound (Tokyo → Shin-Osaka)

December 28, 29, 30 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

inbound (Shin-Osaka → Tokyo)

January 2, 3, 4 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

Sanyo Shinkansen

outbound (Shin-Osaka → Hakata)

December 28, 29, 30 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

inbound (Hakata → Shin-Osaka)

January 2, 3, 4 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

Kyushu Shinkansen

outbound (Hakata → Kagoshima-Chuo)

December 28, 29, 30 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

inbound (Kagoshima-Chuo → Hakata)

January 2, 3, 4 from the left.
a chart of seat availability