Peak day prediction of 2017-18 winter holidays travel

This article was written about 12 months ago.
photo by tabi-o-ji.com

According to this site Shinkansen Timetable’s independent survey, the train congestion peaks during coming winter holidays (December 28, 2017 to January 4, 2018) will be the outbound trains on December 29 and 30, and the inbound ones on January 3 because many users search the travel plans here for these days. It is our private study. The official estimation based on the actual sales of reservation tickets will be released around the same time as last year, that was December 15, by JR Companies.

a chart of search volume

We have analyzed the search volume of our travel planner. As a result of the counting, outbound travels on December 29 and 30, and inbound ones on January 3 have great searching volumes. The actual peaks of crowding are expected to be around these days. If the daily number of search reflects the number of passengers to go on those days, the days will be actual peaks of crowding.

These data was got through different calculation approach from Congestion Prediction in this site. So they may be out of synchronization each other.

Seat availability around the expected peak days

According to the actual seat availability data at the night on December 11, outbound trains on December 29 and inbound trains on January 2 and 3 have quite large numbers of reservation.

The charts shown below the indicate seat availability of around the peak days on Tokaido, Sanyo and Kyushu Shinkansen. On the graphs, horizontal axes mean hours of departure from 6 to 24 and vertical the number of Nozomi, Mizuho, Hikari, Sakura and Tsubame trains. The bar of blue shows underoccupied trains, yellow near capacity and red full occupancy. So it may easy to book trains at the hours with stretching blue bar.

The seat availability changes from moment to moment. Visit the site of JR Cyber Station and get up-to-the-minute details.

Tokaido Shinkansen

outbound (Tokyo → Shin-Osaka)

December 29, 30, 31 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

inbound (Shin-Osaka → Tokyo)

January 2, 3, 4 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

Sanyo Shinkansen

outbound (Shin-Osaka → Hakata)

December 29, 30, 31 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

inbound (Hakata → Shin-Osaka)

January 2, 3, 4 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

Kyushu Shinkansen

outbound (Hakata → Kagoshima-Chuo)

December 29, 30, 31 from the left.
a chart of seat availability

inbound (Kagoshima-Chuo → Hakata)

January 2, 3, 4 from the left.
a chart of seat availability